Toward a Hydrogen-Based Transportation System

.................................................................................................................................................................................1 Approach................................................................................................................................................................................2 Lifecycle Cost as a Yardstick............................................................................................................................................2 Air-Pollutant Damage Costs .............................................................................................................................................3 Environmental Damage Costs from Greenhouse Gas Emissions....................................................................................4 Lifecycle Cost Comparisons .................................................................................................................................................4 Base Case Vehicle .............................................................................................................................................................4 General Findings ...............................................................................................................................................................5 Major Findings Relating to Vehicles Fueled with Hydrogen ..........................................................................................5 Major Findings Relating to Hydrogen as a Fuel for Motor Vehicles ..................................................................................6 Hydrogen from Fossil Fuels with Geological Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide ...........................................................9 Hydrogen from Biomass .................................................................................................................................................10 H2 from Renewable Electric Energy Sources ................................................................................................................11 A Strategy for Pursuing Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles as a Long-Term Option ..............................................................12 Gasoline as an Initial Fuel for Fuel Cell Vehicles .........................................................................................................13 Methanol as an Initial Fuel for Fuel Cell Cars ...............................................................................................................14 Hydrogen as an Initial Fuel for Fuel Cell Vehicles........................................................................................................14 What is the Least-Costly Fuels Strategy for Commercializing Fuel Cell Vehicles? ........................................................15 Buying Down the Cost of Fuel Cells with Fleet Markets ..................................................................................................17 Fleet Vehicle Markets .....................................................................................................................................................18 Toward Learned-Out Costs for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles ......................................................................................18 Fueling Strategies for Centrally Refueled Fleets ...........................................................................................................19 Widespread Deployment Strategy for Cost Competitive Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles..................................................19 An Optimistic Scenario for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Worldwide .............................................................................20 Public Policy for Bringing about a Transition to Near-Zero Emissions............................................................................23 Widespread Dissemination..............................................................................................................................................24 Early Deployment............................................................................................................................................................26 Research, Development, and Demonstration .................................................................................................................29 Implications for Developing Countries...............................................................................................................................29 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................................................................30 Acknowledgments ...............................................................................................................................................................31 TABLES...............................................................................................................................................................................32 FIGURES.............................................................................................................................................................................36 APPENDIX: Estimating Air Pollution Damage Costs; Discussion of Uncertainties; and Comparison of Findings with Those of Other Studies................................................................................................................................................46